Comments on: Poll: Have We Found a Market Bottom Yet?

By: Pacific

Pacific — Thu, 07 May 2009 05:44:17 +0000

The only thing that makes sense with the market is that it has been going up lately.
I know I also expected it to go down more.

But I also know I can be wrong.

I am willing to be VERY VERY flexible!

By: Sampson

Sampson — Wed, 06 May 2009 03:43:00 +0000

Doesn’t it make you worried?

In the back of my head, I understand why we deserved to drop 40-50%. Credit was and IS out of control.

I cannot, for my life, understand how we can recover to the point we are at. Its not rational and earnings (although beating ‘expectations’) are still down 20-30%.

Irrational, right?

By: DAvid

DAvid — Wed, 06 May 2009 03:08:15 +0000

First sign of spring?

Finally, my RRSP mutual fund portfolio is showing some life — I’ve recovered about 25% of the losses I realized at the bottom.

DAvid

By: Scott

Scott — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 13:46:57 +0000

As well, there are a few other economic tsunamis yet to be unleashed, with commercial real estate being the next in line. Should be fun times ahead!

By: Victor

Victor — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 09:22:01 +0000

To those that are saying we are already on an upward trend that is likely to continue, I’m curious: Why? What concrete reasons can you offer as to why it makes sense that the markets are recovering now?

I certainly don’t see recovery on the employment front which is where it affects most people, or in store prices for basics or in number of houses sold.

By: cannon_fodder

cannon_fodder — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 09:15:52 +0000

I think we are not going to break the low of March 9, but I do believe we are going lower again. I could see a reduction of 10% off from where we are now but the markets will resume an upward trend in the last half of the year.

By: GK

GK — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 08:13:40 +0000

Interesting recovery…..To Wall Street booking new profits by laundering risk out of bad loans with new issues of securitized paper?

By: Ed Rempel

Ed Rempel — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 20:40:58 +0000

Hi All,

The most reliable principle in investing is: “The masses are always wrong!” Normally, the bulls vs. bears ranges between 75:25 to 25:75. Whenever, there is a very strong strong opinion one way or the other, it is considered a very strong reverse indicator.

This poll shows 90% are bearish, which is a very bullish sign.

By: Stephen

Stephen — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 13:59:14 +0000

I have no idea whatsoever … but my strategy continues to be buy low and sell high. I say buck the trend … “catch the falling knife” and “shoot the running horse”.

By: GK

GK — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 11:01:33 +0000

The real economy is still in severe recession and fiscal stimulus would be limited in effectiveness until toxic assets had been thoroughly cleansed from the banking system. How you sell back to the market all the toxic assets?

By: Ed Rempel

Ed Rempel — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 04:07:47 +0000

Hi Les & Jay,

It looks like we are the only 3 optimists. In general, the public opinion is normally a strong reverse indicator, so does all this pessimism support that we are in irrational pessimism?

By: GK

GK — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 07:01:03 +0000

Goldman thinks that paying back funds in regards to the bailed out will loosen Uncle Sam’s grip. If Goldman is so concerned about the conditions attached to taxpayers funds, its management should never have allowed its balance sheet balloon in first place.

By: Scott

Scott — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 03:58:38 +0000

Have a look at the “stats” (or should I post this one is the ‘Technical Analysis’ article!) and tell me if you think this market is experiencing the birth of a new bull, or the bounce of the dead one:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/12/100_year_bull_b.html

(sorry, not sure how to format links — just copy/paste!)

The average bear/stagnation period after a bull market (since the Great Depression) lasts 19 years — we have just begun the 9th year. Any bets on how many years are left?

By: Scott

Scott — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 03:35:43 +0000

Hmmm, think G-Sachs would have the almost $2 billion “earnings” if it had not been bailed out by the US government? The odds of defiance are because of government manipulation and public ignorance (mostly by choice). As I’ve said many a time in many a post, it’s not based on truth. But people don’t care as long as they see their stock rise by 70% in one month — it’s still all about ME, and all is well with the world.

I wouldn’t worry about the bear market continuance. It will most surely happen, especially if the public, gov’t, and corps do everything they can to keep re-living the last 25 years.

Let it crash and rebuild instead of trying to pull a Frankenstein.

By: InvestAssetWealth

InvestAssetWealth — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 22:32:31 +0000

Just when you expect this bear market rally to lose steam, it keeps chugging along upwards and forwards. Today we’re at basically 3 month highs on the TSX. Goldman Sachs reported first quarter earnings of 1.81 Billion, blowing away analysts expectations. I’ve been a bear on financials for about 2.5 weeks now, but this rally just keeps defying the odds.

InvestAssetWealth

By: Jay Profeit

Jay Profeit — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 15:04:28 +0000

I defiantly think we’ve bottomed out. It wont be all roses from here but the worst is over IMO.

By: Matt

Matt — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 22:33:34 +0000

Peter Schiff is a good place to start for sure. But for a differing view google “mish Peter Schiff”. Which gentleman is correct, I do not know which is why I am preparing for both inflation and deflation.

By: GK

GK — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 21:57:51 +0000

Yes, Peter Schiff is definitely a place to start.
It is one thing to see that things were out of control, it is another to have the guts to say that. Any other brave souls who manage to predict the storm, when the water was still calm?

By: Les

Les — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 17:04:13 +0000

I think most people have irrational market pessimism. I actually only started getting into the market via the Smith Maneouver in November (about a week too early) and have averaged down a bit and am around break even excluding dividends. I think we may have already seen the bottom but we will continue to move side ways for a while and I am actually hoping for some more lows to buy up some more. Meanwhile the TFSA is a great vehicle to make short term gains.

By: Scott

Scott — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 13:38:06 +0000

Ah, Schiff…he’s having a hard go of it lately. As I stated, there were a ton of commentators who called all of this, simply by paying attention to the truth instead of being swept up in the reality. There was one guy (forget his name) who, back in 2000, called gold the “trade of the decade”, was he right? He was also involved in that ‘IOUSA’ movie that came out a while ago. It was easy to see it coming. Unfortunately, when times are booming, few of us want to listen to the nay sayers and get out!